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UFCApex: Woodley Vs Burns

Prelims

Chris Gutierrez (14-3-1) Vs Vince Morales (9-4)

Chris Gutierrez is 2-1 since joining the UFC.  His last time out, he took a controversial split decision win against Geraldo De Freitas. Vince Morales is another contender series alumna, although the lost on the Contender Series he did find a home in the UFC. Morales is 1-2 since joining the promotion. His losses were to Song Yadong and Benito Lopez. This fight is just a random filler fight. I wouldn’t put any money on either fighter. That being said I’m going to go with Chris G because he has those deadly leg kicks, and if Vince Morales gets inside the pocket he’s going to have to eat those. Vince Morales has the chance to win but I don’t like the volume of his striking, neither fighter really. 

Casey Kenney (13-2-1) Vs Louis Smolka (16-6)

This is going to be a fun one in the bantamweight division. Casey Kenney has faced some tough fights in his 3 UFC appearances beating an over inflated Manny Bermudez, and a overweight Ray Borg. His only loss since joining the UFC is Merab Davashilli who has the potential to be a top 10 fighter. Louis Smolka is a UFC veteran with 10 fights, he was released after a 4 fight skid. Once he was cut from the UFC he went on to go 3-0 outside of the promotion. He was brought back in the UFC and is now 2-1 since coming back. Smolka is a weird fighter, he’s good but he’s not great. He’s been training with a great striking coach in Oyama with Vera, and Alex Perez. This is going to be Casey Kenneys easiest fight but I still think we see the best Louis Smolka we have seen in quite sometime. Kenney is going to counter punch, get takedowns, and maintain control for all three rounds. 

Tim Elliot (15-10-1) Vs Brandon Royval (10-4)

This is that classic Veteran Vs prospect fight in the UFC. Brandon Royval, the current LFA flyweight champion in the world, will be facing the tough and gritty fighter Tim Elliot. Elliot is on a 2-fight skid, granted they’re losses to two of the best flyweights in the world right now. He’s now got the young up and comer. This fight is going to go one of two ways. Tim Elliot will get submitted and cut from the UFC or Tim Elliot will win by decision out scrambling Royval. Because Tim Elliot has faced so many opponents better than anything Royval has faced and he has great wrestling, I favor him. Brandon Royval has one path to victory in my eyes and that’s a submission. Tim Elliot lacks a lot of fight IQ but he should be able to win this one.

Jamahal Hill (7-0) Vs Klidson Abreu (15-4) 

This fight is going to bum a lot of people out, I’ll explain why. Jamahal Hill had a great showing on Contender Series and in his UFC debut against Darko Stosic. The one thing that he struggles with is his takedown defense. Klidson Abreu is 1-2 since joining the UFC, in my opinion he should be 2-1. His only real loss is to Magomed Ankalaev, and I’m sure a lot of light heavyweight fighters would lose to him. Because Jamahal Hill was taken down 6 times against Darko I do not like his chances in this fight against Abreu. Klidson has a clear path to victory here if he fights smart. Get him down and go for the submission which he’s successfully done 10 out of his 12 stoppage victories. Jamahal Hill could win if he stuffs the takedowns but I can’t see him doing that this time around.  

Daniel Rodriguez (11-1) Vs Gabriel Green (9-2)

Daniel Rodriguez TKO. Gabriel Green hasn’t fought in 2 years and hasn’t faced anyone like Daniel Rodriguez. I just can’t see him coming in here and pulling off a upset on like 4 day’s notice. 

Kaitlyn Chookagian (13-3) Vs Antonina Schevchenko (8-1)

This is going to be the loudest fight of the night that’s for sure. This is a weird fight all around. Chook is coming off a stoppage loss to her opponents sister. Why it’s so weird is Valentine just beat Chook so Antonina is going to have the insight on what to do to win. Other than that Chook gets outlanded by every opponent shes ever faced almost. Chook can’t even take the fight to the ground if she wanted, she’s landed 0 takedowns in her last 19 appearances. I get it she was the title challenger but it’s just the flyweight division. Schevchenko should win this fight 30-27. 

Main Card

Mackenzie Dern (7-1) Vs Hannah Cifers (10-4)

This fight would be relatively easy for Mackenzie Dern. Her opponent Hannah Cifers has pretty decent stand up. What Cifers struggles with is getting up when she gets taken down. Dern is a well decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and she’s going to be way bigger than Cifers. All she needs is Hannah to make one mistake on the ground and it’s over. I expect that to happen relatively quick. 

Spike Carlyle (9-1) Vs Billy Quarantillo (13-2)

Spike “The Alpha Ginger” Caryle is going to be making his second walk to the UFC octagon. Billy Quarantillo will be as well. Both fighters won by stoppage in their debuts. I was completely not expecting Spike to win, he was a +400 underdog or something like that and he went out and finished Aalon Cruz in one round. Whereas Quarantillo faced another UFC debutee himself and won by second round submission. I like Spike a lot he seems to have the confidence, the look, and maybe even the personality to get some type of stardom. I believe he can win this, the only thing that scares me is it’s a catch weight bout and I’m not sure what his gas tank is going to look like out there. If he doesn’t get it done in the first round or half way through the second then look for Quarantillo to put it on him. This honestly could be a fight of the night candidate, I personally can’t wait.   

Brok Weaver (15-4) Vs Rosevelt Roberts (9-1) 

Both fighters are Dana White Contender Series alumni. Rosevelt Roberts won via submission in his first two fights and split his last 2 by decision losing only to tough as nails veteran Vinc Pichel. Brok Weaver won via decision on Contender Series and in his UFC debut he was knee’d to the head illegally, ultimately winning by disqualification. Brok Weaver is a brawler there isn’t much that he does great. Roosevelt Roberts is definitely going to have the more tolls in there. Weaver has low volume while Roberts has a lot of output and looks to finish the fight anyway he can. Especially on the ground via submission. 

Blagoy Ivanov (18-3) Vs Augusto Sakai (14-1-1-) 

Blagoy Ivanov is one of the more interesting UFC heavyweights. In his UFC debut he went back in forth with former champion Junior Dos Santos. After doing so he went 2-1 he dropped his last fight by decision to Derrick Lewis controversially. Standing across the octagon is Augusto Sakai. He’s making his 4th walk to the octagon. Sakai is coming off a 1st round knockout of Marcin Tybura. Sakai is going to have the longer reach, better BJJ, and more combos. That being said I like Sakai to win if he can defend the wrestling from Ivanov. Ivanov has the best chin in the UFC heavyweight division. For that I can’t pick against him he’s too durable and I see him taking the later rounds. He’s just gotta avoid the knockout and wait until Sakai gets tired.  

Tyron Woodley (19-4-1) Vs Gilbert Burns (18-3)

This fight is so hard to gauge. Tyron Woodley hasn’t fought since he was embarrassed by Kamaru Usman. Gilbert Burns is on a tear since coming to the Welterweight division. Tyron Woodley feels disrespected and could come out like a bat out of hell and starch Burns in the first. Outside of that scenario things get dicey for Woodley. Gilbert Burns is the more active fighter, A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, and is durable in his own right. I love Gilbert and want him to win so he has to avoid that over hand right against Woodley. Unfortunately I don’t think Burns can avoid that lower shot and he’ll ultimately get knocked out or TKO’d. Tyron Woodley first round knockout. I hope to God I’m wrong though.

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